The Whole Picture
Cartographic Insights into Global Supply Chain Dependency
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has highlighted the intricate nature of global supply chains, a complex network connecting nations and propagating disruptions to distant regions. Previous studies often concentrate on direct dependencies, neglecting indirect dependencies caused by the lack of essential inputs, making a comprehensive assessment of the global supply system challenging.
This visualization project offers an interactive tool, based on the Complexity Science Hub research results, to explore effects of different scenarios, presenting a holistic view of both indirect and direct global shocks caused by supply disruptions.
This visualization presents the results from a multilayer network model that takes into account both trade between countries and the production dependencies among products. The model parameters are calculated from 2020 data on supply and use of individual food products in different countries.
Laber, M., Klimek, P., Bruckner, M. et al. Shock propagation from the Russia–Ukraine conflict on international multilayer food production network determines global food availability. Nat Food (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00771-4
The consequences of Russian import shortages are estimated by a supply shock propagation model that assumes linear production functions for every sector and iteratively propagates shocks through the supply. The changes in gross output of the sanctioning countries resulting from trade sanctions against Russia are assessed by a linear-response model starting from external demand shocks and returns predictions for output changes. The models use the Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which offer multi-regional input-output data for 66 countries and 45 industries (based on ISIC Revision 4, last available year 2018).
Reisch, T., Yang, L., Hurt, J. et al. Shocking Russia: How will economic sanctions affect the Russian economy, how will an oil and gas embargo play out, and how are sanction-imposing countries affected on the various industry sectors?. CSH Policy Briefs (2022). https://www.csh.ac.at/economic-shocks-shaking-russia-and-the-world/