Research by Moritz Laber, Peter Klimek, Stefan Thurner
Visualization by Liuhuaying Yang
The war in Ukraine called attention to the vulnerability of the global food supply system. Here, you can explore which food products are lost and which countries are affected most severely when a specific supplier stops to produce a single food product. Key scenarios related to Ukraine and a detailed description of our model are presented here: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2210.01846.
The default scenario shows the global effects if Ukraine can no longer produce maize. Our model combines information on the trade, production, and consumption of 125 food products in 192 countries. As products turn into other products along the supply chain, the shock to Ukrainian maize production does not only affect the availability of maize but also causes losses of other products, such as pig or poultry meat due to a lack of animal feed.
To explore other dependencies in the global food supply system click on “edit” and put the production of a specific product in a country of your choice to halt. The resulting losses can also be inspected as a 2D-grid, sorted by product type and world region, by switching from “map” to “grid” in the top left corner of the page.
Please also note the limitations of our approach: Countries cannot switch trading partners if they fail to deliver a product, nor can they adapt their production recipes if a specific good is not available to them. It also does not account for the effect of food prices. These mechanisms could attenuate losses in wealthy countries that can afford pricy alternatives and amplify them in poor countries that cannot.